Greece crisis – another pigeon – ECB/EZB got trapped: accepts Junk as collateral in reverse repurchase agreement – ECB on the wrong track

Author Thomas Ramseyer

According to the press ECB is elected Greece Paper collateral starting from now on
Thus banks can get money against discounted short term bonds maturing by the end of 2010.
Also they can borrow money against Greece poison paper used as a collateral in repurchase agreement transaction (nowadays often mentioned Repo) on a rolling bases (low short term rates applied) 

Remarks
All what has been said, the whole set of the famous discipline rules invented at ancient times before the EUR to emerge are being kicked at rump. Who started it in the time? The complains from the warden of the currency caused but a simper, was even ridiculed. Maybe the idol’s bad behaviour even provoked the mess the southerners are in.
The European Central Bank ECB/EZB as well as the whole European Union do not want to accept that the EUR has left its zenit well behind. Europe has chosen to spoil the wine by spilling it with water not even pure. That wine is fake and will cause a great deal of headache and biting stomach ache as well.
Politicians and bankers prove to not being creative nor inventive. Also they wrongly fear to loose power by appearing weak in the eyes of the Americans and they simply walk the broadway like some blind old injun while being too conservative and progressively sclerotic. 

The real risk takers
of course are mainstream people . . . American breadwinners, fathers of the future
Not the particular countries but the lender of the last resort ECB/EZB the European Central Bank is takeing full load at any rate and any cost. They easily can do this; the souvereigns of all those EU-countries will bear the risk and losses. 

Party takeing place at Frankfurt
Sleepless in Frankfurt; the German leaders wheresoever starve under one umbrella. At least they will fully understand each other while going down the drain. Suffering from the hot financial industry’s weather the Germs will rave and they can see clearly then their big white elephant. 

Fake bailing out Greece – how German gimmik will work
1) Germany passed the matter on to the ECB/EZB. Germany seems to be clean. It’s face being saved.
2) Countries are stepping in to roll over and take over the maturing Greek dept FROM the Banks. (Greece is as bankrupt as before)
3) The individual investors represented by professional investors such as funds, pension funds, insurance companies, special purpose vehicles and the sort, are going to keep the risk thus getting a neat haircut of some 30 to 50% in due course of time.
4) Maybe the banks in a later stage are ostensibly forced to take Greek risk on the primary market but for soothing the public’s wrath, they criptically are backed by the blowzy repurchase agreement policy. Hedgefunds and other banks will sell their greek junk to big banks accessing the ECB/EZB liquidity by the means of the repo market.
For the sake of a maybe stable EUR this time the banks’ junk investments are going to be refinanced by the ECB through repurchase agreements collateralized with OVERVALUED Greek debt. Most welcome side-effect; the banks will profit from the wide interest rate spread. It is evident; ECB has learned the lesson from the FED by giving the banking industry the opportunity to bolster its reserves with the gain out of the interest differencial. [receive long term yield pay short term interest; sovereign bearing the spread]
(Greece is still bankrupt, nothing has changed, the problem simply being juggled) 

Cognition
By arrogantly sticking to a phantastic looming, ECB/EZB zeroes in the European Union. The downing just has started. 

Suggestions
1) Terminate Greece’s membership of EUR and EU.
2) Change European Union to a genuine confederation such as Switzerland or the United States. [highly recommended]
Those which do not yet have joined, don’t ever join for the sake of independence and democracy.

copyright Thomas Ramseyer
http://www.xing.com/profile/Thomas_Ramseyer5?sc_o=mxb_p

DEMOGRAPHICS: foreseeable future - adolescents' numbers' major shift from the northern hemisphere to SubSaharan Africa by 2050

Author Thomas Ramseyer

25. Januar 2009

Demographics: foreseeable future - major shift of the (zero to 19 year) bracket from the northern hemisphere to SubSaharan Africa by 2050

* * *
major shift throughout demographic characteristics already are set
fuse is lit
time delay factor 10 to 40 years
* * *
German version

Reflection on o|AVENIR|SUISSE|1oo estimation as per 2050

Overall remarks

with regard to the age brackets

the world wide population will grow by some 2'999'000'000 individuals
the range of  
20 to 64 years of age to grow by 1'859'000'000 heads
agegroup  
65 and more to grow by 1'080'000'000 heads
agegroup  
1 day up to 19 years of age to grow by ONLY 25'000'000 heads

with regard to the regions

the worldwide growth of 2'999 Million will be due to

decreasing

Europe (EU EWR CH) 45 Mio
Europe and Central Asia 7 Mio and

increasing

North America 36 Mio
Middle East and North Africa 290 Mio
Latin America and Carribbeans 340 Mio
East Asia and Pacific 375 Mio
South Asia 985 Mio and Sub Saharan Africa 1'025 Mio

Bracket 1) age up to 19 years

the total meager growth of 25 Million is the resulat of the major shift from

decreasing

East Asia and Pacific 180 Mio
Europe and Central Asia 45 Mio
Europe 25 Mio
Latin America and Caribbeans 20 Mio
North America 15 Mio
South Asia 5 Mi

increasing

Middle East and North Africa 15 Mio
Sub Saharan Africa 300 Mio.

Bracket 2) age 20 to 64 years

the total very significant growth of 1'895 Million is due to a

decrease

Europe (EU EWR CH) 70 Mio
Europe and Central Asia 5 Mio

increase

North America 5 Mio
East Asia and Pacific 165 Mio
Latin America and Caribbeans 200 Mio
Middle East and North Africa 205 Mio
Sub Saharan Africa 655 Mio
South Asia 740 Mio

Bracket 3) age 65 and more years

the total growth of 1'079 Million is composed of

increasing

Europe and Central Asia 43 Mio
North America 46 Mio
Europ (EU EWR CH) 50 Mio
Middle East and North Africa 70 Miol
Sub Saharan Africa 70 Mio
Latin America and Caribbeans 160 Mio
South Asia 250 Mio
East Asia and Pacific 390 Mio

Remarks

decrease
caucasian population 52 Mio
Europe and Central Asia - 7 Mio
Europe (EU EWR CH) - 45 Mio

increase

North America 36 Mio
presumably only because of today's numerous young immigrants with
high fertility rates from Middle and South America, the Caribbeans as well as the Pacific
thus the caucasian origin's 65+ population will grow by 139 Million.
almost as much as today's populations of Germany 82 Mio and Italy 58 Mio together

Imagine

Germany and France - a very huge old age retirees' resort

a second even vaster basin of retired with a roughly 870 Mio heads'
increase will emerge from
Middle East and North Africa 70 Mio
Latin America and Caribbeans 160 Mio,
East Asia and Pacific 390 Mio
South Asia 250 Mio

compare 870 Mio additional 65+ population to today's total population of the United States of America 300 Mio, European Union 491 Mio
Thailand 65 Mio and the matter's severity will dawn on you or even gives you the creeps

Upshot

the real problem the world is to face is not environment pollution nor climate change and heating of the spheres but the demographics

© Thomas Ramseyer-Volkart
http://www.xing.com/profile/Thomas_Ramseyer5?sc_o=mxb_p

UBS-debacle: Arena - but a palaver - how to ru(i)n a country

© Thomas Ramseyer-Volkart
http://www.xing.com/profile/Thomas_RamseyerVolkart
14. Februar 2009
Arena of Friday 13, 2009
UBS-debacle: how much government do we need?
http://www.sf.tv/sf1/arena/index.php
Participants:
Simonetta Sommaruga: upper house | Social Party Berne|President of consumer protection foundation
Toni Brunner: lower house | Swiss People Party Thurgau|President (SVP)
Ruedi Noser: lower house | Liberal Democtratic Party (FDP)|Vice President FDP

Appraisal
FDP's Vice President cannot listen to other people's speeches. He persitently and impolitly pesters other parties' speekers. Tries to apply unfair dialectics.
His one and only real true remark was that he as well as the whole audience do not know what they are talking about.
No offence from any corner this meaning that everybody agreed being ignorant about the problem.

SVP's President has realised that roughly 80 % of the jobs are granted by the KMU (small and middle size enterprises). It is well known that KMU's tend to not lay-off their employees which almost are members of their families; the take responsibility whereas big worldwide firms such as UBS, CS, HoffRoche, Novartis, Ciba and similar sack people for whatever stated reason. They just consign the surplus workers - white as well as blue collars - to the government which means to the remaining employees - white as well as blue collars -. By the way SVP's President is able to listen to other's remarks.

Consumer protection foundatios President is able to maintain a concise speech and does not loose their temper which as a mother she should have done already at the start. She can feel the real problem; bankers' selfcontrol being nothing but sweetening words. She wants the government to take over thus always being hooted down by help- and ruthless liberal defending their establishment and sincecure.

Facts
The Arena - another collateral fuss.
Never they discuss the real thing - work for the benefit of the people - getting stuck on minor interests led by ignorant moderators.

It is never the medias' goal to back the souvereign - people, citizens, fathers, mothers, children, COSUMERS and MANUFACTURERS, SAVERS of the money, SAVERS of the economies, real drivers in the seats, together they but scattered.

Most members of the establishment only team up with their owner pockets. It is but as easy as that.

Conclusion
The Swiss and other countries' leaders going on by collaterally fuss about the worldwide economy is to go down the drain. Unusual occurrence demands unusual remedy.

Remarks
Governments are not able to sort it out. They just are fighting with the ancient tricky measures; pimping up the markets by pumping in liquidity thus to furnish people with low rate credit having them indebt up to over the brim of
their hats thus depriving them of real goods such as houses and other durables.
http://ramseyervolkart.blog.ch/?s=government+to+fight+faltering+economy

Suggestion: mature souvereign to take over from the ignorant
Let people take over by simply inviting them to reduce debt - even so called eternal mortgage - of all kind with all the consequences for only a fistful enterprises representing some 200'000 white collar workers. (Total people employed: roughly 3'800'000)

Effect: the equity of the financial intermediaries increase relativ to their debt (debt/equity ratio) by forced shortening of their balance sheets because of people paying down their debt. Collateral effect: savings accounts and wealth diminish by the amount of paid down mortgage debt and other.

Debt: driver for fancy products leaving everybody helpless
As all the financially creative banks' acrobats base on debt only, debt has to be forbidden with all consequences to the intermediaries. Bankers, regulators, politicians, people thus all citizens are no longer overstrained. Life will be easier but more sustainable.

Central banks to get back full control
Have central banks get back full control over the central bank money by simply burn all the heap of ancient paper. Than establish payment only possible by debitcards not bills nor coins.
Rule: no deposit no consumption (no small loans allowed) austerity and saving first only then consume or invest)

Regulators to get back control
over financial intermediaries such as banks, insurances, investment managers as well as exchanges by simply asking them to fully consolidate all their exposures. Also dig in the asset re-establish cost of derivatives and passiv re-establish cost of derivatives, have them state the notional. Get thourough knowledge about booking rules used to outwit almost everyone. Aks for "available for sale", "hold to maturity". What can be done with such classification. Only roughly CHF 35 Billion instead of CHF 68 Billion needed to take over toxic assets from UBS's and others' balance sheets by changing the rules of decent booking maybe by reclassification of assets the latter formerly forbidden.

Demographics: have a look at the long term development demographics and act upon elucidation, get the contact.
http://ramseyervolkart.blog.ch/?s=demographics+foreseeable+future

Diplomacy
Educate all people involved with diplomacy about culture, ethnics, history, religion, psychology, evolution, economy, dialectics, demographics and language. Have them talk openminded thus not hooded nor contorted.

Do not have other countries blackmail switzerland. Just look for alternatives; there always are. We do not crawl in vain.

Anybody threatening to leave the country just let him pack his things and go. The bigger they think they are the rather let them clear away not allowing them to dump their garbage.
Do not have them treat you bullshit and inferiour. Just proceed like Switzerland's delegation to palaver with the US at the WEF. Do not accept, leave them alone.

Politicians
Have them educate themselves in all the above-stated focussing on economy and business administration as well as languages.

Daily business
Run governments of all the sort just like a commercial business. Get rid of fancy exotic expressions such as Vorschlag, Rückschlag, Abschlag, Rechnung, Fahrhabe, Schulgut, Kirchengut used but for unsettling people.

Government, Parliament
Let people vote on easy drafts. E.g. voting participation more than 50%, free movement of persons: only one question! Result very reasonable despite both campaigns being worthless.

Do not let politicians have sovereign vote on complex drafts pretending citizens being mature enough to understand complexity not understood by all sort of politicians counsellors included.

Conclusion
Pioneers needed rather than outdated overdue administrators
Run the country just like a business, think widerange and openminded, have flexibility and innovative power.

Be pioneers rather than administrators.

© Thomas Ramseyer
http://www.xing.com/profile/Thomas_Ramseyer5?sc_o=mxb_p

Demographics: foreseeable future - adolescents' numbers' major shift from the northern hemisphere to SubSaharan Africa by 2050

© Thomas Ramseyer-Volkart
http://www.xing.com/profile/Thomas_RamseyerVolkart
25. Januar 2009

Demographics: foreseeable future - major shift of the (zero to 19 year) bracket from the northern hemisphere to SubSaharan Africa by 2050

* * *
major shift throughout demographic characteristics already are set
fuse is lit
time delay factor 10 to 40 years
* * *

Reflection on o|AVENIR|SUISSE|1oo estimation as per 2050

Overall remarks

with regard to the age brackets
the world wide population will grow by some 2'999'000'000 individuals
the range of 20 to 64 years of age to grow by 1'859'000'000 heads
agegroup 65 and more to grow by 1'080'000'000 heads
agegroup 1 day up to 19 years of age to grow by ONLY 25'000'000 heads

with regard to the regions
the worldwide growth of 2'999 Million will be due to
decreasing Europe (EU EWR CH) 45 Mio, Europe and Central Asia 7 Mio and
increasing North America 36 Mio, Middle East and North Africa 290 Mio
Latin America and Carribbeans 340 Mio, East Asia and Pacific 375 Mio
South Asia 985 Mio and Sub Saharan Africa 1'025 Mio

Bracket 1) age up to 19 years

the total meager growth of 25 Million is the resulat of the major shift from
decreasing East Asia and Pacific 180 Mio, Europe and Central Asia 45 Mio, Europe 25 Mio, Latin America and Caribbeans 20 Mio, North America 15 Mio and South Asia 5 Mio to
increasing Middle East and North Africa 15 Mio as well as Sub Saharan Africa 300 Mio.

Bracket 2) age 20 to 64 years
the total very significant growth of 1'895 Million is due to a
decrease in Europe (EU EWR CH) 70 Mio, Europe and Central Asia 5 Mio and a
increase in North America 5 Mio, East Asia and Pacific 165 Mio, Latin America and Caribbeans 200 Mio, Middle East and North Africa 205 Mio, Sub Saharan Africa 655 Mio and South Asia 740 Mio

Bracket 3) age 65 and more years
the total growth of 1'079 Million is composed of
increasing Europ and Central Asia 43 Mio, North America 46 Mio, Europ (EU EWR CH) 50 Mio, Middle East and North Africa 70 Miol, Sub Saharan Africa 70 Mio, Latin America and Caribbeans 160 Mio, South Asia 250 Mio, East Asia and Pacific 390 Mio

Remarks
the caucasian population of Europe and Central Asia - 7 Mio, Europe (EU EWR CH) - 45 Mio will
decrease by 52 Mio
North America will increase by 36 Mio
presumably only because of today's numerous young immigrants with
high fertility rates from Middle and South America, the Caribbeans as well as the Pacific
thus the caucasian origin's 65+ population will grow by 139 Million.
almost as much as today's populations of Germany 82 Mio and Italy 58 Mio together
IMAGINE: Germany and France - a very huge OLD AGE PENSIONERS' RESORT

a second even vaster basin of retired with a roughly 870 Mio heads' increase will emerge from Middle East and North Africa 70 Mio, Latin America and Caribbeans 160 Mio,
East Asia and Pacific 390 Mio and South Asia 250 Mio

compare 870 Mio additional 65+ population to today's total population of the United States of America 300 Mio, European Union 491 Mio
Thailand 65 Mio and the matter's severity will dawn on you or even gives you the creeps

UPSHOT
the real problem the world is to face is not environment pollution nor climate change and heating of the spheres but the demographics

© Thomas Ramseyer-Volkart
http://www.xing.com/profile/Thomas_Ramseyer5?sc_o=mxb_p

Politics: World Finance Summit 2 - OLD WINE in NEW SKINS

© Thomas Ramseyer
Leading Industrialized as well as threshold (emerging) countries (G20) meet at the White House for a closed-door session
Result: So far never seen consensus amongst them: joint force shall cure the Financial Markets. But nobody is prepared to substantially change the financial system. Advised by the Pied Piper of Hamelin's vassals blindfold country leaders take manipulated decisions.

Facts:It is clear-cut that the result has been grown on the soil fertilized by the manure of the so called developed countries' elites: USA, Great Britain, Europe and the sort. Thus the basis for the new financial market order will be lead by countries where the evil behaviour of the last decades originally emerged from. Most of the other attending countries' specialists may be considered mere exotic spectators to be held ignorant at the event's sideline.

Reasoning: On one hand the country-leaders avowed themselves to the actual market principles such as open market and a liberal investment regime. On the other hand they called for more efficient regulation still allowing dynamic (aggressivness?!), innovaton and entrepreneurship.

They even presumed self-criticism and of course criticism.

They consider the last boom to have lead to neglecting risk while thriving for more and more return. (my remark: bonus-driven??) The declared measures to immediately be taken are more stringent regulations to evaluate komplex financial structures/products. Rating agencies shall be supervised more closely as well as compliant behaviour of all market participants. Equity is to be subject to more stringent rules (debt/equity ratio) and regulations. Unfair competition as well as risks implemented by offshore (tax-shelter) companies were also stated. (remark: what is absent Switzerland considered?)

Conclusion:

Somehow all this sounds familiar; we have had it.

To cure the disastrously faltering world economy, governments are aiming at the gradually growing number of the population's infantile ignorants. To repeat it: nothing actually is going to be changed but for the market participants' responsibility for their transactions. They just are to be lulled at sleep by the above mentioned measurements. To cut it short: just band-aid cure; we do not want to get rid of the malignant ulcer.

The real cause - i.e. heavy debt burden of today's and future's not yet born generations - has not been addressed; but it has to be tackled.

Suggestion: The lowering of debt by the abdication of consuming is the one and only remedy to cure the disaster in the long run.

New (old) World Order Rules
1) pay back outstanding individual dept.
2) build up savings.
3) forget the use of credit cards, whenever using cards use only debit cards
4) first save only then consume
5) Don't buy just for fancy; your belongings must yours not the banks'
6) Don't buy adventurous and promising financial structures.
7) Apply simply the old rule since ever "the higher the return the higher the risk"
8) There is no free lunch
9) Do not eat unknown things - Do not eat sushi, grow your own potato
10 Go back to the roots - Otherwise the disaster will repeat over and over again

Only austerity will be the remedy for a sound recovery!

Risk: Human beings are most likely to forget.

copyright Thomas Ramseyer
https://www.xing.com/profile/Thomas_Ramseyer5

Politics: World Finance Summit 1 - Renovation of Financial System

Author Thomas Ramseyer

Closed-door negotiation on Saturday, 15 November 2008. More than two dozens highly ranked politicians to attend at the White House

If the fading Bush Administration makes a last desperate move there will be no satisfying result; in that case the event has to take place in early first quarter of 2009

American News
QUOTE White House Correspondent

World leaders prepared Friday to adopt an early warning system for financial calamities, a commitment to tougher accounting rules and other MODEST steps to try to prevent future crises like the one now threatening the livelihoods of billions of people around the globe.
UNQUOTE

European News

Referring to the same base according to journalists heads of the state, heads of the government as well as finance ministers are gathering on 15 November 2008 to discuss the REFORMATION of the World Financial System.

American news differ a lot from European articles about the event !!

America
The American news perfectly fits the Bush Administration; i.e. NO CHANGE, CONSERVATIVE, BLUNTLY REPUBLICAN !!

The White House correspondents article actually suggests no major change of today's Financial System. Modest steps and tougher accounting rules are never meant to change the consumers' behaviour. That is just impossible!! They only ameliorate the safety of the some individuals' fortune as well as some firms' - banks and others - assets thus preventing them from deterioration and loss of financial power as well as political power.miraculous early warning system preventing from further calamities is only protecting a small percentage of wealthy firms, organisations and individuals. The above stated protection of billions' of livelihoods of people around the globe are meant to just support the actual financial system.
 

Europe 

Europeans suggest Reformation of World Financial System

The European news suggesting the REFORMATION of the actual World Financial System perfectly fits the future Obama Administration; i.e. CHANGE of and from America, REESTABLISHMENT OF THE WORLDWIDE FINANCIAL ORDER.
 

This implies all market participants' behaviour to substantially change.

Europe's politicians to take measures against catastrophies

Europe's heads of state and government want to take measures to prevent the world from catastrophies which it just is going through and will go through for quite some time.

Suggestion

The only way to renew - thus changing the basis to achieve a prospering world - the financial system will be a humble behaviour of all stakeholders of the variant economies. 

Everybody's REALISM is being asked for; the only remedy is the private consumers to forego too much consumption the latter meaning savings.

Diminishing the heavy debt burden from top to toe is a must. Thus a faltering economy in the northern hemisphere has to be accepted.

Countries to build and maintain infrastructure and education

North

Northern governments shall invest in their countries' infrastructure as well as education. Prejudice has to be thrown overboard.  

South

Southern governments have to be persuaded to believe in their own country thus investing in their own infrastructure and education.

Take southern countries' serious

Southern countries' economies as well as governments must be taken very serious. Northern governments are to assist the former in having their citizens become even more educated; the result thereof will be mature countries and economies. The NORTH may not keep ignorant the SOUTH despite the fear of loss of resources investments included.

This scheme may have step in the numerously populated southern hemisphere to re-establish the world economic system as well as preventing hyper and super power countries from protective action, thus causing political instability.

 

copyright Thomas Ramseyer

http://www.xing.com/profile/Thomas_Ramseyer5?sc_o=mxb_p