True problem will not be Immigration - Northern Hemisphere is running out of Youth
Deutsche Fassung
Fertility ratio worldwide
The conclusion of the following account and graphs shows that we are moving towards a major shift of the worldwide population. If the countries having a narrow or narrowing basement of their age-structures do not change their habits they are going to get overaged populations.
It is striking that those countries are the ones with developped economies. The higher the living standard the less people are existent in the population bracket from 1 to 20 years.
It is a must to prepare threshold countries to step in during the next 100 years to come. This means the transfer of knowledge, skills, experience and education from the north to the south.
This will help to develop their domestic economies for them to have a decent life. The advantage of such a strategy will be a lower immigration pressure during the next 10 to 30 years. At a later stage (40 to 100 years from now) those people will be able to step in. If not the northern hemisphere's infrastructure will rot away as well as the its economies.
DEMOGRAPHICS: foreseeable future
Demographics: foreseeable future - major shift of the (zero to 19 year) bracket from the northern hemisphere to SubSaharan Africa by 2050
List of Countries
CHINA
China is even in worth situation than the EU and other geographically european countries. China is going to be shocked twice. I.e. In 15 to 25 years for the first time, there will be another heavy shock in 35 to 45 years.
INDIA
Maybe India is going to step in at CHINA
GERMANY
Germany's demography has been worsening for 25 years. With its basis
gradually becoming leaner, Germany will run into severe problems within
10 to 30 years. As all neighbouring contries have the same difficulties
Germany will grow overaged together with the other EU-members as well as
Switzerland.
EU
It is evident that the EU's social system is running into severe problems. Few people are supposed to take over the load of the immense number of old people in 20 to 40 years from now.
USA
It can be foreseen that the US population will be able to take over the
wealth of the growing army of pensionares. They might even be able to
take over European as well as other countries' assets.
BRAZIL
Brazil still has a advantageous age structure. As the graph shows the basement is already about to change.
PAKISTAN
Pakistan's age structure has already worsened. The narrowing of its basement is advancing in the direction of the EU-structure.
NIGERIA
As INDIA's population structure will change its shape over time the
SubSaharaCountries must build up their skills as well as their domestic
economies to be able to finally help all the northern countries'
populations.
BANGLADESH
For Bangladesh's age structure is just alike Pakistan's. However, the worsening of the age structure is more advanced.
RUSSIA
Russia is one of the countries' being well aware of the demographic
problem. This country already started to correct her age structure.
MEXICO
Mexico is provided with a healthy and sound age structure. This country
must take care so that the basement of the pyramid does not narrow in
the future.
PHILIPPINES
This country disposes of a healthy age structure.
THAILAND
Thailand is almost in the same shoe as Switzerland and the rest of the developped countries.
SWITZERLAND
Switzerland's growth rate is mainly caused by pecuniary greed supported
by all political parties but for the Swiss People's party. Compared to
Israel - her population's size stemming mainly from a future focussed
internal growth - it is clearcut that the young generations will not be
able to bear the growing load of pensioners.
ISRAEL
Israel's age structure does not stem from Immigration. It stems from a
clear cut population growth policy of the conservative part of Israel's
population which they started some 45 to 40 years ago. By now the
conservatives have gained massive weight in the Knesset.
This example shows what can be done by a country to get a healthy
supportive age structure. This wise policy is future oriented not only
driven by profit.
copyright thomas ramseyer
