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Sunday, February 15, 2009

DEMOGRAPHICS: foreseeable future - adolescents' numbers' major shift from the northern hemisphere to SubSaharan Africa by 2050

posted by
Author Thomas Ramseyer
25. Januar 2009
Demographics: foreseeable future - major shift of the (zero to 19 year) bracket from the northern hemisphere to SubSaharan Africa by 2050
* * *
major shift throughout demographic characteristics already are set
fuse is lit
time delay factor 10 to 40 years
* * *
German version
Reflection on o|AVENIR|SUISSE|1oo estimation as per 2050
Overall remarks
with regard to the age brackets
the world wide population will grow by some 2'999'000'000 individuals
the range of  
20 to 64 years of age to grow by 1'859'000'000 heads
agegroup  
65 and more to grow by 1'080'000'000 heads
agegroup  
1 day up to 19 years of age to grow by ONLY 25'000'000 heads
with regard to the regions
the worldwide growth of 2'999 Million will be due to
decreasing
Europe (EU EWR CH) 45 Mio
Europe and Central Asia 7 Mio and
increasing
North America 36 Mio
Middle East and North Africa 290 Mio
Latin America and Carribbeans 340 Mio
East Asia and Pacific 375 Mio
South Asia 985 Mio and Sub Saharan Africa 1'025 Mio
Bracket 1) age up to 19 years
the total meager growth of 25 Million is the resulat of the major shift from
decreasing
East Asia and Pacific 180 Mio
Europe and Central Asia 45 Mio
Europe 25 Mio
Latin America and Caribbeans 20 Mio
North America 15 Mio
South Asia 5 Mi


increasing
Middle East and North Africa 15 Mio
Sub Saharan Africa 300 Mio.
Bracket 2) age 20 to 64 years
the total very significant growth of 1'895 Million is due to a
decrease
Europe (EU EWR CH) 70 Mio
Europe and Central Asia 5 Mio


increase
North America 5 Mio
East Asia and Pacific 165 Mio
Latin America and Caribbeans 200 Mio
Middle East and North Africa 205 Mio
Sub Saharan Africa 655 Mio
South Asia 740 Mio
Bracket 3) age 65 and more years
the total growth of 1'079 Million is composed of
increasing
Europe and Central Asia 43 Mio
North America 46 Mio
Europ (EU EWR CH) 50 Mio
Middle East and North Africa 70 Miol
Sub Saharan Africa 70 Mio
Latin America and Caribbeans 160 Mio
South Asia 250 Mio
East Asia and Pacific 390 Mio
Remarks
decrease
caucasian population 52 Mio
Europe and Central Asia - 7 Mio
Europe (EU EWR CH) - 45 Mio


increase
North America 36 Mio
presumably only because of today's numerous young immigrants with
high fertility rates from Middle and South America, the Caribbeans as well as the Pacific
thus the caucasian origin's 65+ population will grow by 139 Million.
almost as much as today's populations of Germany 82 Mio and Italy 58 Mio together

 Imagine
Germany and France - a very huge old age retirees' resort
a second even vaster basin of retired with a roughly 870 Mio heads'
increase will emerge from
Middle East and North Africa 70 Mio
Latin America and Caribbeans 160 Mio,
East Asia and Pacific 390 Mio
South Asia 250 Mio

compare 870 Mio additional 65+ population to today's total population of the United States of America 300 Mio, European Union 491 Mio
Thailand 65 Mio and the matter's severity will dawn on you or even gives you the creeps
Upshot
the real problem the world is to face is not environment pollution nor climate change and heating of the spheres but the demographics

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