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Friday, November 7, 2014

A University Degree Vs Vocational Training: Which one to choose? - Nigeria as an example

In recent decades it has become almost de rigeur for young people to go onto higher education, and 2013, according to UCAS figures, saw the highest uptake ever recorded with almost 50% of students going on to university.

However, although it’s long been a government objective to reach this level of university attendance, there’s a school of thought which says that the UK is now educating too many young people to degree level and that those same youngsters, and the job market, would be better served by a greater focus on vocational training.

We examine the pros and cons of pursuing a university degree or a course of vocational training.

There is only ONE solution: in a country both ways must be chosen by the youth. Higher education is NOT the guarantee to get a job. There must be persons enabled to produce goods in a professional way. Graduates with NO will to touch work do not really help the economy. Also people must not look down on people farming. The high urbanization rate shows that people leave their farms just to "make" it in the suburbs of a city.

Mindset: tomorrow I will make it!!! (then they call their brothers abroad for support)

It is also important that in countries - mainly in areas not yet developed - the parents do NOT emphasize on their children attending university. If the majority of the people live off agriculture the history of now developed countries must be repeated. A country's economy cannot evolve from an agricultural (primary sector) into a service (tertiary sector) economy without first having built a sound industrial sector (secondary sector). Goods produced on a domestic level will provide jobs to a country's people. A country's infrastructure of course also is provided by the secondary sector. The wages paid to all those workers for sure are used to buy the aforesaid goods.

Without a sound industry sector (construction of houses and other infrastructure, manufacturing of durable goods as well as the full value chain of food production) a country never is able to end up developed. This because the majority of the people remain jobless not even being able to consume tertiary sector's services.

A good example for this is Nigeria with her population of  one-hundred-and-eighty-million (180'000'000 ranking 8 of the world) with an age median of 18.2 years (half of the population is younger than 18.2 years the other half is older) and 70% of the people living at or below poverty line. The GDP per capita amounts to USD 2800 per year, roughly USD 233 per person per month.

The "good" year over year (yoy) economical growth rates are only impressing some unexperienced greenhorn bankers. They even tried to talk Nigeria into raising foreign debt again. What a joke!!! This debt's only purpose would be big style money-laundering for the benefit of some ruthless looters.

Oil money from a different angle
If the figures are being looked at a per capita level the bitter truth shines through. USD 88'872'000'000 oil exports would result in USD 1.35 per head and day. Thus Nigerians would rather NOT wait for that oil money to be dispensed. It cannot happen and it will NEVER happen. Nigerians: "STOP dreaming!" With those revenues from crude oil and some scarce derivatives (on a net basis for sure Nigeria is importing oil derivatives)

Imports to be paid mainly by crude oil export
Imports count for some USD 55'980'000'000 or USD 0.85 per head and day.
The trade balance thereof results into USD 0.50 per head and day.
Revenues (tax) USD 23.85 billions (4.8% of GDP)
Expenditures (government's expense) USD 31.51 billions
Budget defizit of USD 7.66 billions which is -1.5% of GDP

Poor Nigerians do not know; their children's debt constantly is on the rise
We can foresee a constant growth of the public debt also in the future; the government does NOT rain in its expenditures.
Debt 2013 is 19.3% of GDP
Debt 2012 it amounts to some 17.9% of GDP 2012
The debt's growth rate is a whooping 17.8% yoy (year over year)

In absolute figures:
GDP 2013 of USD 502 billions public debt is USD 96.886 |
GDP 2012 of USD 473 billions public debt is USD 84.667 |
GDP 2011
of USD 443 n.a.
GDP 2010 of USD
413 n.a.
the absolute growth rate of the public debt is 14.43% in ONE year. (for those who do not know: the public are ALL individuals living in Nigeria nowadays as well as in the future. It is clear-cut: the ones younger than 18.2 years of age have NO clue at all about what the actual government is doing to them and their children children children. It is atrocious!

Debt per capita - (debt per person) includes everybody; even the babies not yet born
The debt per capita - with the number of people constantly rising - at a median of 18.2 years of age is NOT relevant.

Unemployment rate relevant to judge
or... go and watch the people fighting for a square meal daily

It wise to focus on the unemployment rate of 23.9% in 2011 vs 4.9% in 2007 a sharp rise which can be considered even much higher by now (November 2014)

CIA - The factbook