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Thursday, February 13, 2014


True problem will not be Immigration - Northern Hemisphere is running out of Youth
Deutsche Fassung
Fertility ratio worldwide
The conclusion of the following account and graphs shows that we are moving towards a major shift of the worldwide population. If the countries having a narrow or narrowing basement of their age-structures do not change their habits they are going to get overaged populations.

It is striking that those countries are the ones with developped economies. The higher the living standard the less people are existent in the population bracket from 1 to 20 years.

It is a must to prepare threshold countries to step in during the next 100 years to come. This means the transfer of knowledge, skills, experience and education from the north to the south.

This will help to develop their domestic economies for them to have a decent life. The advantage of such a strategy will be a lower immigration pressure during the next 10 to 30 years. At a later stage (40 to 100 years from now) those people will be able to step in. If not the northern hemisphere's infrastructure will rot away as well as the its economies.

DEMOGRAPHICS: foreseeable future
Demographics: foreseeable future - major shift of the (zero to 19 year) bracket from the northern hemisphere to SubSaharan Africa by 2050

List of Countries
China is even in worth situation than the EU and other geographically european countries. China is going to be shocked twice. I.e. In 15 to 25 years for the first time, there will be another heavy shock in 35 to 45 years.

Maybe India is going to step in at CHINA

Germany's demography has been worsening for 25 years. With its basis gradually becoming leaner, Germany will run into severe problems within 10 to 30 years. As all neighbouring contries have the same difficulties Germany will grow overaged together with the other EU-members as well as Switzerland.

It is evident that the EU's social system is running into severe problems. Few people are supposed to take over the load of the immense number of old people in 20 to 40 years from now.

It can be foreseen that the US population will be able to take over the wealth of the growing army of pensionares. They might even be able to take over European as well as other countries' assets.

Brazil still has a advantageous age structure. As the graph shows the basement is already about to change.

Pakistan's age structure has already worsened. The narrowing of its basement is advancing in the direction of the EU-structure.

As INDIA's population structure will change its shape over time the SubSaharaCountries must build up their skills as well as their domestic economies to be able to finally help all the northern countries' populations.

For Bangladesh's age structure is just alike Pakistan's. However, the worsening of the age structure is more advanced.

Russia is one of the countries' being well aware of the demographic problem. This country already started to correct her age structure.

Mexico is provided with a healthy and sound age structure. This country must take care so that the basement of the pyramid does not narrow in the future.

This country disposes of a healthy age structure.

Thailand is almost in the same shoe as Switzerland and the rest of the developped countries.

Switzerland's growth rate is mainly caused by pecuniary greed supported by all political parties but for the Swiss People's party. Compared to Israel - her population's size stemming mainly from a future focussed internal growth - it is clearcut that the young generations will not be able to bear the growing load of pensioners.

Israel's age structure does not stem from Immigration. It stems from a clear cut population growth policy of the conservative part of Israel's population which they started some 45 to 40 years ago. By now the conservatives have gained massive
weight in the Knesset. This example shows what can be done by a country to get a healthy supportive age structure. This wise policy is future oriented not only driven by profit.

copyright  thomas ramseyer