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Sunday, March 23, 2008

Economy: SubPrime Crisis - MBS - MBO - CDO

© Thomas Ramseyer
Opinion about MBS, MBO, CDO, and the sort
MBS, MBO, CDO a multiple of USD 100 bio write-offs in the US because of real estates revaluation – owners -- mainstream people e.g. hillbilly boys, florida old age retired – healthy everlasting forced to thrive for jobs (thus crowding out illegal hispanics and far easterners) having eaten all their money.

Crisis just about to start; consumption down, credit card industry to call in money by rising interest rates, carstock to be unsellable, all other goods but for just in time goods to remain on high longterm debt interest cost, imports to lower affecting producers logistic entities worldwide.

Banking-business such as credit, wealth management, assets, forex money mkt lower, heavy layoffs to get back realized losses within three to five years --- unemployment up, recession deepening, busting of small firms taking place: in short: mainstream investors to pay for central banks’ easing M1 worldwide at cheapest levels for a too long period of time.

Why am I not surprised about econometric bankers’ – central bankers included – surprise of the vast impact on financial and economic systems? Because all of them are being advised by some ignorant young big swinging dicks!

Add-on 15. March 2008
By now we know that roughly USD 200 bio have been written of. According to high potential researchers’ revelation there is more potential to write off amounting to some USD 400 bio: total USD 600 bio.

Add-on 22 March 2008
UBS is said to layoff 8000 workers resulting in savings of roughly USD 1.6 bio. (USD 1’600’000’000) per year thus USD 4.8 bio by thre years, USD 8.0 bio by five years respectively.

Last year’s realised losses thus will be balanced by then. Written off Investments may turn out to contribute to future gains as the real-estate market right now being supported by US-Government will recover.

According to economic researchers e.g. KOF, BAK, SECO the economies’ growth rates are only slightly slowing down. SubPrime Crisis provoking fear of recession/stagflation in the US would only slightly impact the nonUS economies.

As all other countries more or less are depending – see China’s positive TradeBalance with e.g. the US – on United States’ economy an upcoming recession in the US will have an impact to some greater extent on nonUS economies than foreseen by soothing European economists.

copyright Thomas Ramseyer